Expect Jays to make 'value-driven' trades, but are there any to be had?

The Toronto Blue Jays’ 2016 offence has returned to its 2015 world-eating form.

Edwin Encarnacion hasn’t slowed down.

Michael Saunders is having his best offensive season ever.

Josh Donaldson is back on pace for another MVP run.

Russell Martin continues to provide value on both side of his game. 

When healthy, Jose Bautista was getting on base at a league-leading clip and finally, Troy Tulowitzki has found his bat. 

Given that the Jays are also seeing a cake-icing deal of offensive production from their lesser stars like Kevin Pillar, Ezequiel Carrera and Devon Travis, along with excellent bench production from Justin Smoak and Darwin Barney (and potentially Chris Colabello), is this one of the best top-to-bottom offensive clubs the game has seen over the last few decades?

But if the Jays’ 2015 post-season run proved anything, it’s that having the best offence in baseball isn’t enough to win a World Series - or even get to one. Right now, it’s not even good enough for first place in the AL East (though to be fair, it’s helping climb the ramparts and batter at the castle gates).

Let’s assume that the Jays make it back to the post-season with the assembled cast of stars they already have. No players get added to the roster, no trades - nothing. What you see now is what you get.

Result: The Jays lose.

The Jays don’t lose ball games because they can’t hit. They lose because they don’t have enough arms at the back of the bullpen to maintain leads. When they fell short last fall, it was the lack of bullpen depth that ultimately dragged them down. Brett Cecil - one of the best relievers in baseball last season - was hurt and Aaron Loup had run out of gas. The Jays had to call up Ryan Tepera, an inexperienced and right-handed ­pitcher to play the role of lefty specialist. When the Jays matched up against teams with solid offence and aces capable of mitigating their offence, it boiled down to bullpen attrition. And the Jays had the short stack.

This year’s Jays bullpen is worse than last year’s by leaps and bounds. It’s in dire need of an upgrade. But we have to be clear here when we say ‘upgrade’ because there are two types of them.

First, we have upgrades that fill holes over the course of the season. Then we have upgrades that become game-changers for the regular season and beyond. Picking up David Price was a game changer for the Jays last season. Picking up a Triple-A pitcher who can fill in as a 5-6 man in the rotation is a hole-filler, a.k.a. ‘depth.’

The Blue Jays need both right now - in their bullpen AND in their rotation.

Why, you may ask? Well for starters, because the Jays plan to move arms from their rotation to their pen, a-la Aaron Sanchez.

The Jays also have a major health risk with Marco Estrada, whose back has become a cortisone pin cushion. He had a series of injections during spring training and another series of them just last week. If he keeps this pace, he’ll be in line for another series of injections right around playoff time - assuming he makes it that long.

Then there’s the curious case of Marcus Stroman, who has decided to reinvent his pitching style without anyone asking him to. He’s not the same Stroman that we saw last year, nor is he the stealth pitcher who flew under the radar and shocked opposing hitters with a fresh, tweaked arsenal.

Finally, there’s Drew Hutchison, the main beneficiary of the Jays’ 2015 offensive rampage. Despite a horrendous 6.19 runs allowed per nine innings (R9) and stunning runs better than average (RAA) of -32, he still had a win/loss record of 13-5. While his last few big league outings have been better, expectations aren’t exactly set very high.

So considering that the Jays’ bullpen has the second-worst ERA in the AL East and carries 20 of the team’s losses, I’d say that a blow to the rotation could, at this point, make the team so lopsided that no amount of offensive overkill could keep them afloat.

Another way to put this is saying that the Jays have a lot of exposure to the volatility of pitching. With Sanchez back in the bullpen, a potential shutdown of Estrada because of back issues (and skipping a chance to pitch in the coveted All-Star game is a telling sign) would make J.A. Happ the ace. That’s one ace going up against another team with ‘multiple aces’ in the post-season.

Again, this is assuming the Blue Jays actually get to the post-season. If you’re more worried about them getting there than winning, then you’re okay with the offence doing the work so long as warm bodies eat innings on the old agony patch.

And after Drew Hutchison, the Blue Jays have absolutely nothing in Triple-A or Double-A.

The bottom line is this - despite the surge in the win column, the Jays still need to upgrade. While it would be great to see the club back in the post-season, that’s no longer enough.

Blue Jays fans were simply happy to see their team back on a big stage last season. Over two decades without post-season play was a long time for any team to endure and the 2015 cast ended the drought. So now what?

This year’s Jays team must go for it all because there are three hands pushing their window shut once the season ends - Saunders, Encarnacion and Bautista. They’re all free agents at the end of the season and heading into a market light on sluggers. Someone is going to pay them a lot more than Toronto and when they do, the Jays will see a loss of nearly 6.2 offensive Wins Above Replacement (oWAR). Not including Josh Donaldson, it would take the rest of the team combined to replace that level of production.

With the farm system so light on prospects - hole-fillers and game-changers alike - the front office has its hands tied. There are very few teams in contention that’ll swap with the Jays and aid a rival, no matter the return.

Also, teams out of contention aren’t interested in rental bats like Encarnacion, Bautista or Saunders – even if the Jays would part with just one of them.

Finally, trades at this juncture are all about players and not money. Unless, of course, the Jays are willing to eat an enormous salary for a big name pitcher - like Zack Greinke’s ridiculous deal which the Diamondbacks (despite their struggles) are happy to pay as part of their grand future plans.

So what’s left? The Jays have been scouting Oakland’s Rich Hill, a fine option already seeing interest from other AL East rivals - namely the Orioles and Red Sox. Then there’s Jeremy Hellickson of the Phillies, who’s heading into free agency at season’s end and could be a nice rental piece for a post-season push. The longer the Jays wait on him, the less expensive Hellickson gets. But the more competition will be there to acquire him.

The New York Yankees really need to deal Aroldis Chapman while the dealing is good and get something back into their farm system - though a league rival is not an ideal destination for the Bronx Bombers. And finally, there’s the Twins’ Ervin Santana, who was stained by PED use, but effective nonetheless.

If the Jays do make a move, expect it to be a value-driven option. Not just because they’ve said they want value and depth to their prospect pool, but because they only options they have are value-driven.

Unfortunately, when everyone’s looking to upgrade, there are no value-driven options.