Injuries, health will inform Jays' decisions

Steve Phillips

TSN Baseball Insider

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The Blue Jays enter the second half as a legitimate playoff contender but injuries and health concerns are at the forefront of their concerns.  Marco Estrada is dealing with back issues and Jose Bautista is still limping because of turf toe.  The continued health and well-being of Aaron Sanchez is absolutely critical to the Jays’ pitching staff whether he remains a starter or moves to the bullpen.  These are critical to not only the Jays success in the second half, but also their plan to improve for the stretch run. 

It seems complicated:  the notion of balancing the unknown future and recovery and rehab of players with the needs of the team for the remainder of the season, all while knowing the trade deadline is approaching.  The clock is ticking and the Jays are going to have to make decisions with a certain level of uncertainty. 

Let me see if I can simplify this, though.  Jose Bautista will heal or he won’t, but it will not likely change any part of the plan at the trade deadline.  The emergence of Michael Saunders, the return of Devon Travis from the disabled list, the contribution of Ezequiel Carrera, the improvement of Troy Tulowitzki and the dominance of Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion, all have elevated the offence to a level that is above average.  They have shown they can score enough runs even without Bautista.  I don’t expect any moves for impact offensive players.  The return of Bautista will be the acquisition that will improve the Jays offensively.

So what about the pitching?  The starting pitching has been very good and the bullpen has been below average.  Overall, the staff has been good enough to deliver a 51-40 record. 

Maintaining the health of Sanchez is the overriding priority.  The amount of rest he needs as a starter or his transition to the bullpen will equate to a certain amount of need for the starting rotation.  If Marco Estrada’s performance is minimized or diminished in any way to lost time or decreased effectiveness, this will add to a need on the starting staff, as well. The rotation should be bolstered by an improved performance from Marcus Stroman in the second half.  This should compensate for some of the declines that are possible from both Sanchez and Estrada.  If Sanchez were to move to the bullpen, then Toronto needs another starter because I don’t trust Drew Hutchison to be predictable or consistent. 

The bullpen needs help:  Drew Storen and Brett Cecil have dropped the ball in the first half.  Much was expected, without the desired return.   The acquisition of Jason Grilli has helped compensate for the struggles, but the bullpen clearly still requires more.  The needs of the bullpen will mostly be satisfied if the Jays shift Sanchez from the rotation. Though, I would still like to see the addition of a quality lefty for John Gibbons to have at his disposal.  If Sanchez were to stay in the rotation, the bullpen needs to add two relievers, including at least one lefty.

Ultimately, the Jays will be exploring the available pitchers at the trade deadline with a primary focus on bullpen arms.  Expect Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro to keep close tabs on the starting pitchers’ market, as well.  Remember it is much more affordable to acquire bullpen help than starting pitching.  This suits the Jays since they don’t have the depth in their farm system to acquire an impact starter like a year ago. 

This year’s available talent pool at the deadline will not be as strong as year’s past, but there are some opportunities.  The Boston Red Sox are already taking advantage of some of those opportunities. They added Brad Ziegler in the bullpen when closer Craig Kimbrel went down and Drew Pomeranz in the rotation from the Diamondbacks and Padres, respectively.  They have also acquired Aaron Hill to add depth and balance in the infield.  

Rich Hill has performed extremely well for the Athletics this year.  He signed a one-year, $6 million deal last offseason and is a real bargain and a difference-maker.  Oakland may also consider trading Sonny Gray, but his underperformance this season may have hurt his value too much.  It might make more sense for the A’s to keep Gray and rebuild his value before dealing him.  A contender will have to think they can fix Gray to justify a premium value deal now.

Twins starter Ervin Santana is another hot commodity.  This season has been dismal for Minnesota and Santana is the only starter who has been pulling his weight this season.  They can come in last place with him or without him, so I expect he will be moved. 

For clubs looking for outfield help, Jay Bruce is available and will be dealt.  The Reds opted not to trade him last year at the deadline and tried in the offseason, but a proposed deal that would have seen him head to the Blue Jays fell through. Bruce was an All-Star and could be a difference-making, left-handed power bat. 

The Yankees’ big three in the bullpen offer premium high-octane gas to a prospective suitor.  Although there seems to be some question as to which the direction the Yankees are going to go and whose decision it will be, I believe they will at least trade Aroldis Chapman.  The next most likely candidate to be dealt is Andrew Miller based upon the “where there is smoke, there is fire” theory.  His name has been on the trade block since last offseason, so at some point the rumours will be true.  Dellin Betances is still affordable and the youngest of the group and therefore winner of the "Most Likely to Remain a Yankee Award."

Some other names who may/will change teams are:

Starters: Matt Moore, Jake Odorizzi (both Tampa Bay) and Julio Teheran (Atlanta)

Relievers: Steve Cishek, Sean Doolittle (both Oakland), Joaquin Benoit (Seattle) and Erasmo Ramirez (Tampa Bay)

Outfielders: Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton, Jr. (both San Diego), Carlos Gonzalez (Colorado), Ryan Braun (Milwaukee) and Carlos Beltran (Yankees)

Infielders: Danny Valencia (Oakland), Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay) and Yunel Escobar (Angels)

Catchers: Jonathan Lucroy (Milwaukee) and Stephen Vogt (Oakland

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What a turnaround for the Houston Astros. Once looking like a seller, but now a likely buyer, they start the second half of the season with a 48-41 record in second place in the AL West, 5.5 games back of the Texas Rangers.  The Astros are just two games behind in the wild card race.  

The Astros went 7-17 in April, then 17-12 in May and 18-8 in June.  The biggest difference was starting pitching.  In April, Houston had a 4.97 earned run average, which was the worst in the AL.  In May, it improved to a 3.81 ERA and in June it was 3.11. 

The offense improved, as well.  The biggest change happened when George Springer moved to the leadoff spot.  They are 30-13 since the move.  This allowed Jose Altuve to move to the #2 spot in the lineup to drive in more runs.  This young roster never stopped believing in themselves, even when they were double digits under .500, and  AJ Hinch has done a great job managing them. 

They weathered slow starts from their ace Dallas Keuchel and their bullpen, too.  Doug Fister and Lance McCullers, Jr. stabilized the rotation as Keuchel and Colin McHugh go themselves back on track.  Will Harris took over the end-of-game duties from Luke Gregerson, who had won the job in the spring over Ken Giles. 

The Astros are for real.  They will be a playoff team at the end of the year.  They have a talented roster and they have a chance to add to it, as they still have a deep farm system, despite making a number of moves over the last year.

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Spitting Seeds

The show that Giancarlo Stanton put on at the Home Run Derby was the most impressive derby performance I have ever seen.  He hit 24 first-round homers, seventeen in the second round and 20 in the third round for a total of 61.  He hit the 10 longest homers and 18 of the 19 longest in the competition. 

I was in Detroit when Bobby Abreu hit 25 in the first round.  He went on to win the competition with 41 total dingers.  Stanton had 41 after two rounds and not the three it took for Abreu. 

I was on the field calling the derby for ESPN in 2008 when Josh Hamilton hit 28 first -round homers. It was a remarkable feat.  Remember back then, the batters were allowed 10 outs and could accumulate as many homers as possible before making those outs.  Stanton hit 24 out of the park in 30 swings in his first round within the four minutes he was allowed. 

Stanton is going to have an epic second half.  Pay attention if you're sitting in left field.

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What was Mets manager Terry Collins thinking?  In his post-All Star Game press conference, he said he took care to get every team represented through his managing decisions during the game. That’s great, but he forgot to represent one team - his own!  Collins failed to get any Mets in the game.  He was holding Bartolo Colon in case of extra innings and he was going to close the game with Jeurys Familia, if he had a lead.  The NL lost 4-2 in the regulation nine innings. 

Now it’s never fair to identify a problem without a solution, so here is what I would have liked him to have done:  Colon should have pitched the fifth inning instead of Julio Teheran of the Braves.  Let Teheran be the long man in case of extra innings.  Of all NL teams, the Braves have the least argument about playing time, considering they own the worst record in baseball. Familia should have gotten the final out of the eighth inning instead of Kenley Jansen of the Dodgers.  The Dodgers had been honoured and represented already in the game by Corey Seager, the starting NL shortstop. 

I wonder how the Mets’ clubhouse will feel about Collins’s decisions.

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Dear Miss Manners,

Is it ok to regift a gift even before you receive it?

That is effectively what Eric Hosmer, the Most Valuable Player of the All Star game did when he announced he was giving his new Chevy truck to his father as soon as it was given to him on the field. 

It was a really nice gesture by Hosmer, but I wonder what Chevrolet thinks about the timing of the regifting announcement.

“Thanks for the new truck, but I am going to give it away.”  

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The ratings for the All-Star Game were a record-low.

That’s the bad news.  The good news is, it still outperforms every other sports’ All-Star Game ratings.  

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One last All-Star Game note:  Commissioner Rob Manfred continues to show that he gets it.  It was a very nice touch to name the AL and NL batting champion awards after Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn, respectively. 

The announcement of the awards before the game in San Diego helped honor the legacy of Gwynn and the video tribute to Gwynn brought a tear to many eyes at the stadium on Tuesday night.

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There seems to be conflict in the Yankees organization.  There are reports that owner Hal Steinbrenner and club president Randy Levine want to go for a playoff spot, despite their fourth-place standing in the AL East and having seven teams in front of them in the wild-card race. General manager Brian Cashman and the baseball department see this year as an opportunity to rebuild and sell off some assets. 

If they need a tie-breaker, I side with Cashman.  The Yanks are going nowhere this season with the age of their roster. 

But the name on the cheques is "Steinbrenner."  It should be an interesting few weeks in the Bronx.

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Texas Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor has rejected a contract extension offer from the Texas Rangers.  I hope he spoke to teammate Ian Desmond, who turned down the Washington Nationals seven-year, $107 million contract offer a few years back.  Heck, Desmond even rejected the Nats’ $15.8 million qualifying offer last year. 

Maybe Odor wanted a bigger cut of the pay-per-view of his next fight and that is what's holding up the deal.

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By the letter of the law, Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz tampered when he suggested that Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion would make for a good fit as his replacement in Boston next year.  But his tongue-in-cheek tone and genial nature will likely get him off the hook with no more than a warning. 

That being said, it was recruitment which certainly puts pressure on the Jays regarding their decision and negotiations with their All-Star slugger.