When David Price opted not to return to the Jays this past off-season, more than a few fans felt like their best chance at a return to the playoffs opted out with him. Even despite the fact Price was unable to win a single playoff game for the Jays last season. Regardless, when one of the best pitchers in baseball leaves, it hurts.  When that pitcher leaves for your rival, it hurts even more.

However, with the emergence of JA Happ and Marco Estrada as fixtures in the Jays rotation—a combined salary $5 million less than what the Sox are currently paying Price—have Jays fans finally gotten over their brief but passionate David Price affair?

I’d say so. But for all the wrong reasons.

Here’s the thing: during Price’s 2015 stint the with Jays, he put up a 9-2 record with 82 strikeouts over 74.1 regular season innings. His opponent BAA was .207. That’s complete and utter dominance. So much so that Price was arguably the best pitcher in the American League over that stretch. Certainly he was the rock upon which the Jays' postseason run was founded.

Price finished last season with an outstanding 18-5 record—the reason the Red Sox were more than happy to pay him $217 million over seven years, and the reason Jays fans still miss him, even If he is the enemy. When a pitcher puts up those kind of results, it’s tough for any other non-bona fide ace to come in and play the role of replacement.

Hayhurst: Jays lack assets to make meaningful additions

TSN Blue Jays analyst Dirk Hayhurst joins Gareth Wheeler and Mark Roe on Game Day to discuss the upcoming trade deadline and what the Jays should do.

When the Jays signed Happ as Price’s replacement lefty, there was collective moan by fans and pundits alike. How, exactly, was Happ, the guy who put up an 11-11 record for the Jays in 2014, split time between the rotation and bull pen, and gave up a career high 22 home runs, going to fill in for the indomitable Price?

So far, very well.

The Red Sox are paying Price $30 million this year. The Jays are paying Happ $12 million. Price’s win/loss record is 9-6 while Happ’s is 12-3. Dividing dollars by wins, the Red Sox are paying Price $3.3 million for each win provided this season while the Jays are paying Happ $1 million. That’s one of the best dollar to win ratio’s in all of baseball. Estrada's $2.6 million and Aaron Sanchez's $57, 533 per win salaries are also solid ratios.

However, before I mislead you into thinking that the Jays have the better pitcher with Happ, they don’t. What they have, for the moment, is a better value.

Price is head and shoulders better than Happ and every one in baseball should know this. Happ simply has a better win/loss record, a large part having to do with Happ’s luck and offensive support versus Price’s lack thereof.

If Price were a Blue Jay, he’d be far closer to his 2015 results than he is today. Instead, he’s with the Red Sox, where, despite how good the Sox have been offensively, Price has lost five games wherein he’s given up four or fewer runs. Happ, on the other hand, has only had one loss in a game where he’s given up four runs or fewer. Give those four or fewer results back to Price and you’ve found your old Price—at least in terms of record—who, despite an inflated ERA this season, would be the proud owner of, at least, a 12-6 record. At best, 14-6.

And speaking of ERA, let's all agree that it’s bad stat for measuring a pitcher. It factors numbers that can be affected by parks and defence and misplays and all sorts of arbitrary score keeper crap. Instead, let's look at other, more meaningful numbers: Price has walked fewer hitters this season than Happ (27 vs 32), has struck out far more (140 vs 89), has a better Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.41 vs 4.02, and has been supplied fewer runs in support.  

So if Price is this much better, how is Happ still out dueling him?

Well, while ERA is crap, FIP isn’t perfect either. FIP counts up walks, homers, and hit batsmen, and subtracts out K’s. These are things that pitchers actually control which makes it vastly superior than ERA. That said, it puts a premium value on strikeouts. Thus, Price’s FIP of 3.41, while the highest it’s been for him in the last five years, is still better than Happ’s at 4.02, but only because Price strikes out sooooo many more hitters than Happ.

Happ’s Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is .280. That’s lowest it’s been in the last five seasons, and it points to some luck, impact, or superior defence helping Happ. Price’s BABIP is .321, the highest it’s ever been for Price in his entire career.

Also the highest it’s been for Price— his homer’s per nine innings.

If you’re following along so far, Price, despite walking less, striking out more, and throwing more innings, has been less lucky and seen more fly balls turn home run than Happ. That’s not a recipe for superiority. It's a recipe for a happy surprise, and great value. 

But will it last? 

Don't get me wrong, while I love what Happ has been doing this season, I would still take Price over Happ any day of the week.

As the push for the postseason gets nearer, the value of dollars to wins ratio gets less relevant compared to the ability to actually win. While I’m pleased with Happ’s results this season, his value over 162 games is not the same as his value over a playoff series, where a pitcher will face premier lineups and opposing CY young potentials. 

The Jays may be winning the regular season value award with Happ, but, even with Price’s lack of postseason wins, and even with his unlucky 2016 campaign, I’d still take him over Happ in a must win, one game playoff scenario—a scenario the Jays may very well find themselves in this year.