TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
TUESDAY JULY 19TH – WEDNESDAY JULY 20TH
Written by Sean Addis and Nick Dika
The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks will play a short two game series in Arizona starting tonight, after splitting a two-game series last month at the Rogers Centre. This will be Toronto’s first return to Arizona since 2013. The Blue Jays just completed a disappointing series against the Oakland Athletics, where Toronto squandered multi-run leads in all three games and were lucky to leave the Bay Area with one win. The Diamondbacks, last in the National League West, are coming off a series win against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The series match up favours the Blue Jays, but as we saw in Oakland, nothing should be taken for granted.
Pitching Matchups:
TUESDAY JULY 19TH – 9:40 PM ET
Aaron Sanchez (9-1, 2.97 ERA) @ Zack Godley (2-0, 5.28 ERA)
Sanchez makes his first start of the second half Tuesday night in Arizona, having last pitched for the Jays 10 days ago on July 9th. While many suggested that Sanchez would be frequently skipped or pushed back to manage his workload, the All-Star break reshuffling marks only the second time that Sanchez has been pushed back to pitch on more than normal rest.
When tasked with pitching on extra rest, Sanchez threw 6.2 innings against the Red Sox – surrendering 4 runs (3 earned) and striking out 6 on May 27th at the Rogers Centre. Sanchez continues to show no sign of tiring as the season moves past the halfway point – having thrown 8 innings in two of his last three starts.
Despite all of the turmoil surrounding Sanchez’s potential departure from the rotation, if the Blue Jays get anything close to the same results Aaron Sanchez (2.97 ERA, 1.7 WARP) produced during the first half of the season, it will be awfully difficult to remove him from the rotation
The Diamondbacks will counter with Zack Godley. A 26-year-old righty that has been used as a swingman since his call up in June. Godley was drafted in the 10th round (288th overall) of the 2013 draft and came into the season as the 24th best prospect in the Arizona system. He has pitched to a 5.28 ERA in his 15.1 innings of major league work thus far.
Godley leans heavily on a cutter, which he throws with an average velocity just under 90 mph and uses a curveball and slider as his primary secondary offerings. Godley has also struggled to limit free passes – walking over 4 batters per 9 innings in both Triple A and the Majors this season.
WEDNESDAY JULY 20TH – 3:40 PM ET
Marcus Stroman (7-4, 5.15 ERA) @ Patrick Corbin (4-8, 5.25 ERA)
Unfortunately for Blue Jays’ fans, the All-Star break did little to cure Marcus Stroman’s recent struggles, as he allowed seven runs (including three home runs) in only 4.2 innings of work this past Friday in Oakland. While Stroman continues to search for the consistency on the mound, it is important to remember that he’s still only 25 years old and effectively pitching in his second Major League season.
Stroman’s success and failure continues to hinge on his ability to prevent hard contact by pitching down in the zone. During Stroman’s two recent successful starts against Cleveland and Kansas City, he was able to minimize hard contact – allowing only 23.8%. Alternatively, when Stroman is unable to locate down in the zone, that hard contact rate rises drastically – as it did on Friday night in Oakland. As frustrating as it can be to watch Stroman scuffle, there is still plenty of time this season for him to right the ship and pitch like he did at the beginning of the season and down the stretch in 2015.
Much like Stroman, Diamondback’s starter Patrick Corbin has struggled to produce the results we expected so far this season. After missing all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Corbin returned in the second half of 2015 – posting a 3.60 ERA and 3.37 FIP over 16 starts. While Corbin’s initial post-TJ numbers look a lot like the ones he put up during a breakout 2103, the 26-year-old has struggled this season – pitching to a 5.25 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over 109 innings.
Between Stroman and Corbin (who leads all of baseball with 38.8% hard contact surrendered), there is a strong possibility that the ball will be flying all over Chase Field on Wednesday afternoon.
ADDITIONS AND SUBTRACTIONS
The Diamondbacks are still without ace Zack Greinke, who is on the 15-day disabled list with a left oblique strain, as a result Zack Godley will be making at least one spot start in his absence. On Sunday the D-backs placed catcher/outfielder Chris Hermann on the disabled list with a strained right hamstring. They have selected infielder/outfielder Mike Freeman from Triple-A Reno as his replacement.
Ezequiel Carrera’s achilles tendon has been causing discomfort and he did not play in Sunday’s game against the Athletics. He is expected to play in the series, but if he can’t that would reduce the bench options at manager John Gibbons disposal.
The Blue Jays have two players that are rehabbing at AAA Buffalo. Super Utility Ryan Goins is eligible to come off the DL on Friday and Franklin Morales will complete his 30 day rehab stint on Wednesday, after which, Blue Jays will be required to make a decision with regard to his status. Chris Colabello was promoted to AAA Buffalo, as he tries to work himself back to the big club after serving his 81 game PED suspension. Finally, Macro Estrada is expected to start Friday night when the Blue Jays return to Toronto to face the Seattle Mariners.
Keep an Eye On
Jake Lamb
The Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Jake Lamb was named the National League player of the week. Over the weekend series against the Dodgers, he hit .583 (7/12) with one home run, four runs batted in, and three runs scored. Lamb is in his first full, healthy season in the majors and at 25 appears to be breaking out as a star. He is leading the National League in slugging percentage (.635), while having a slash line of (.390/.468/.902) over the month of July. The Blue Jays pitchers will have Diamondbacks perennial All Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to contend with, but it might be how well they slow down the hot bat of Jake Lamb that determines their success against this lineup.
Keeping the ball on the ground
The Diamondbacks play in one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in the National League (1.197 runs factor). The higher altitude, short fences in left field and league average distance in the power alley allow for many home runs. However, the field is more advantageous for extra base hits due in part to the 25 foot wall in centre field. For this reason it will be imperative for the Blue Jay starters to try to keep the ball on the ground. The good news for the Blue Jays is Marcus Stroman leads all major league pitchers inducing ground balls (59.6%), while Aaron Sanchez is sixth in MLB (56.6%). If they are going to be successful they will need to continue this trend. Sanchez was able to effectively do that in hitter friendly Coors Field last month, pitching an eight inning gem against the Colorado Rockies.
Jays Offense
The Blue Jays offense has been heating up over the last 12 games. They have scored five or more runs nine times. In this series they need to take advantage of the hitter friendly ballpark and facing two pitchers who have struggled this season. Zack Godley has limited major league experience and has struggled with command (as indicated above), and Patrick Corbin has a home ERA of 7.15 and hitters have an OPS of .831 against him. A key to this series is for the offense to take advantage of the favourable pitching match ups.
Probable Lineup
Blue Jays |
Diamondbacks |
| Ezequiel Carrera – RF | Jean Segura – 2B |
| Josh Donaldson – 3B | Michael Bourn – CF |
| Edwin Encarnacion – 1B | Paul Goldschmidt – 1B |
| Michael Saunders – LF | Jake Lamb – 3B |
| Russell Martin – C | Wellington Castillo – C |
| Troy Tulowitzki – SS | Yasmany Tomas – RF |
| Devon Travis – 2B | Brandon Drury – LF |
| Kevin Pillar – CF | Nick Ahmed – SS |
| Pitcher – P | Pitcher – P |
via Roster Resource
Final Thoughts
The Jays have a great opportunity to use this short series to make up some ground on both Boston and Baltimore. Toronto did not take advantage of playing the last place Oakland Athletics and lost two out of three, they now have an opportunity against another last place team. It is important that they take advantage of this part of the schedule as they try to defend their American League East Title.
Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports