Sportsnet 590 the FAN’s Mike Wilner sat down to answer all your most burning Toronto Blue Jays questions.
Below is a selection of some of the questions Wilner answered. Click here to check out Part 1.
Q: Jose Bautista has been hurt for a month and the Blue Jays haven’t missed a beat. Should the Jays trade Bautista for pitching help rather than see him leave for nothing at the end of the season?
A: Absolutely not. There are so many things wrong with this idea that it’s difficult to know where to begin.
Yes, the Blue Jays have been playing really well in the absence of Jose Bautista, they’re 16-11 since he hurt his foot running into the wall in Philadelphia. But are they playing really well because Bautista isn’t in the lineup? Of course not.
They’re playing really well because the starting pitching has continued to be great, Troy Tulowitzki has come off the disabled list and become himself again (.307/.355/.584 with Bautista out) and because Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion are hitting as though they’ve been sent down from some higher league.
Here’s the thing, if Bautista weren’t about to come back off the disabled list, he would be exactly the kind of player the Blue Jays would be trying to acquire at the deadline. What’s the Blue Jays’ biggest offensive hole right now? Right field.
There is a fallacy that abounds that Ezequiel Carrera should get consideration to take over for Bautista as the Jays’ everyday right fielder, but here’s the truth: Carrera’s a great fourth outfielder.
Generally, when back-up players find themselves filling in everyday roles, it doesn’t take long to remember why they’re back-ups. Since Bautista got hurt, Carrera has hit .218/.337/.345. He’s getting on base reasonably well, but that’s an awful slash line for a corner outfielder. Carrera’s not the answer, Bautista is.
And as far as Bautista potentially leaving for nothing as a free agent after the season? Two things. First, he won’t leave for nothing – if he goes, the Jays get a first-round pick from whoever signs him.
Second, think about it this way, what if Bautista had been a free agent after last season? Would you have foregone that great August and September, the playoff run and, most importantly, the bat flip, because you were worried about him leaving for “nothing?” I hope nobody answered yes to that.
Additionally, Bautista is a 10 and five player (as is Encarnacion), so the team can’t trade him without his permission. That’s another hurdle. Also, only a contender would be interested in Bautista and no contender would ever give up starting pitching while trying to make a playoff run.
Q: If the Blue Jays can sign only one of Bautista and Encarnacion, which one would you sign?
Why do people want to talk about this? First of all, it’s not a real thing. If Bautista and Encarnacion both want to leave, they’re both going to leave. If they both want to sign contracts that the Blue Jays find to be reasonable in salary and term, then they’ll both stay. In neither case is it up to the Blue Jays. It’s not as though the Jays can choose to sign one or the other, they’re free agents, they both get to pick where they want to go next season.
Second of all, who cares? I know we’re not used to such things as Toronto sports fans, but this Blue Jays team is good enough to win the World Series and that’s what matters more than anything.
If you concern yourself with the big, giant forest that looms beyond 2016 (especially since there’s not a thing anyone can do about it), you’re going to miss a lot of really nice trees, including a likely second-straight playoff run that has a chance to go even farther than last year’s.
Was anyone worried about whether Jimmy Key, Dave Winfield and David Cone would leave the Blue Jays during September and October of 1992?
(Photo Credit: Chris O’Meara/AP)
Q: How can the Blue Jays bring Chris Colabello back when his suspension is up? He can’t play in the playoffs.
A: While Colabello isn’t eligible to play in the post-season as a result of his drug suspension the 2015 version of Colabello could certainly play a large role in helping the Blue Jays get there, which is why he’ll be welcomed back if he shows he can still hit.
Colabello’s suspension is up on July 23, and in the first nine games of his “rehab” stint, he has hit just .182/.263/.333 so the Jays aren’t likely to bring him back the second he’s available to them, especially with things going so well overall and Bautista about to come back.
Q: How can the Blue Jays win anything with Josh Thole as their backup catcher?
A: Pretty easily, actually. Or maybe better said, as easily as they could if someone else was their backup catcher.
Thole is a below-average offensive player having a very below-average season, though he’s had a couple of very good games in a row. He’s also one of the best in the world, if not the best, at catching the knuckleball, which helps, since R.A. Dickey has been the Jays’ third-best starter (behind Marco Estrada and Aaron Sanchez) since the end of April.
Yes, if Dickey wasn’t on the team Thole probably wouldn’t be either, but he’d just be replaced by a different backup catcher who wasn’t very good because the truth is that back-up catchers aren’t very good.
Last year, the Kansas City Royals won the World Series with Drew Butera as their backup catcher. He hit .198/.266/.267 yet they still beat the New York Mets – whose backup catcher, Kevin Plawecki, hit .219/.280/.296.
Thole’s current on-base percentage is .253, which is lower than his career .315. If he gets 150 plate appearances this season, which is his approximate pace, that means he’ll reach base 38 times. The average on-base percentage in the American League is currently .323, which means that over 150 plate appearances, the average AL hitter reaches base 48 times.
So the 2016 version of Thole, having a bad year even by his standards, will reach base 10 fewer times this season than a league-average offensive player. Is that really worth even one per cent of the angst?
And yes, there’s worry that if Russell Martin goes down with a long-term injury, the Blue Jays are screwed. Also screwed if their starting catcher goes down with a long-term injury: Every other team in the major leagues.