Melvin Upton Jr. Heads to Toronto, Continuing Preller Purge

It could be argued that, when Atlanta sent Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton Jr. to San Diego last April, it was neither Matt Wisler nor Jordan Paroubeck nor the draft choice they received from the Padres which represented the greatest benefit of the deal for the Braves, but rather the relief from Upton Jr.’s salary. At the time, Atlanta owed more than $45 million to Upton Jr. through the 2017 season. Getting out from under the contract made sense for a club that appeared unlikely to contend anytime soon. Upton Jr., who possessed negative trade value, was nevertheless traded.

Quite a bit has changed in the meantime, it seems. Since arriving in San Diego, Upton Jr.’s on-field performance has improved as the total remaining cost of his contract has decreased. Once a liability, Upton Jr. became a hypothetically tradeable asset — one who was actually traded today, to the Blue Jays, for right-handed prospect Hansel Rodriguez.

There is, of course, some cost to the Padres, who will pay $17 million of the $22 million still owed to Upton Jr. through next season, per Jon Heyman. But that’s not entirely surprising: the trade market currently features a great number of outfielders, something that was true last summer and carried over into the free-agent market last winter. The cost to acquire outfielders simply isn’t very high, and Toronto is benefiting from that glut.

As Jeff Sullivan noted earlier this month, Melvin Upton Jr. is back. Updating the chart Sullivan used in that piece, we can see the different Upton eras.

Upton has recorded 21 homers while also stealing 29 bases in 37 tries. While, at 31, he’s certainly on the downside of his career, he has also provided solid value over the past year, even if it’s still fair to wonder what the future holds. Upton is still striking out an awful lot, he doesn’t draw a ton of walks, and some of his offensive resurgence is tied to his BABIP, but most of it is the reduction in strikeouts plus the power resurgence. Dividing Upton into eras like up above, except using batted-ball numbers, doesn’t show a lot of change in most areas.

The big difference is the power, as more of Upton’s fly balls are leaving the ballpark compared to his time in Atlanta. He hasn’t hit nearly as many infield flies, but by direction and type of contact hasn’t changed significantly. That isn’t to say that Upton isn’t better. He definitely is, and the easiest way to see that comes in his strikeout rate.

While a 28% strikeout rate still represents a high mark, even in this strikeout-heavy era, coming down from 32% is a big deal. We are making some assumptions, but consider it this way: if given 600 plate appearances, reducing strikeout rate by 4% gets you 24 addition balls in play, a .300 BABIP gets you seven or eight more hits, and in 550 at-bats, that’s an increase in batting average and on-base percentage of about 15 points. That increase compensates for the lower walk rate. Combine the lower strikeouts with the increased power and Upton changed from albatross to asset.

The projections aren’t yet buying into Upton given his disastrous time in Atlanta, giving him an 84 wRC+ in the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections. Adding a bit of offense on the basepaths and roughly average defensive value make him about a one-win player over the course of the season, which is worth more than what Toronto will be paying him. He does have some immediate upside. On a Blue Jays roster not teeming with valuable outfielders, Upton provides needed depth the rest of the season at all three outfield positions, a right-handed alternative to Michael Saunders, and a cheap option for next year as, at worst, a fourth outfielder.

As for San Diego, this is the second deal they’ve made like this so far this year. James Shields, signed by the Padres prior to 2015, was sent to the White Sox along with around $30 million to pay for a bit over half of a contract that’s over after the 2018 season. After making the mistake of trying to contend in 2015, the Padres are attempting to purge themselves of the decisions made shortly after A.J. Preller took over.

Upton’s arrival allowed the Padres to acquire Craig Kimbrel. Upton’s departure might allow Manuel Margot, the top prospect acquired from the Red Sox for Kimbrel, to receive some playing time down the stretch as the Padres attempt to usher in a new era. By trading for 18-year-old Anderson Espinoza in the Drew Pomeranz deal and spending more than $50 million on international prospects, the franchise is attempting to move forward to contention in a more sustainable avenue than they attempted a few winters ago. The prospect they acquired for Upton fits that mold.

Hansel Rodriguez is just 19 years old and still pitching in Rookie ball, but he has a big arm. Odds are not great for success, but as a flyer, the payoff is great if he even makes the majors. Dan Farnsworth wrote this before the season:

Rodriguez has a live arm but a lot of work ahead of him to turn into a pitcher, needing to develop his secondary stuff and find consistency on the mound. Pitch grades on his offspeed pitches are a shot in the dark at this point, as he’s still figuring out what works for him. An improved ability to throw strikes in the Gulf Coast League last season was a step in the right direction.

It might seem like the Padres are simply giving away an asset for little in return, especially with all the money headed toward Toronto, but Upton’s not too distant past and the poor market for outfielders hurts his value. The trade does more to tidy up San Diego’s house as they move toward the future than it does to provide new furniture. The team could have held on to Upton hoping for a better market at this time next year, but at that point, his contract would have paid him the exact same amount they’re giving to Toronto and run the risk that Upton would slide back to the stats that made him a salary dump in Atlanta.

Toronto gets a player who might contribute to a playoff run this year and next without any worries that his salary could impede an on-field decision, and San Diego moves forward. The trade didn’t have to be made by either club, but the move fit the long- and short-term goals of both clubs. Toronto is trying to get back into the playoffs in a race that could be decided by the smallest of margins, while San Diego is trying to build a club that can contend, but of which Upton was never going to be a part. This isn’t the type of trade that either team celebrates as a major win, but it certainly has the potential to help both clubs.