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So wait, you mean to tell me Melvin Upton is an ... asset?
That all-time bust of a free agent signing? The player the Braves had to pair with Craig Kimbrel just to get rid of his contract?
Apparently so, because the Blue Jays, contenders that they are, just swapped a prospect for him.
Fantasy owners have been slow to come around on this one, rostering Upton in only 75 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, but the 31-year-old -- who got that big contract from the Braves on merit, it's worth noting -- is having a career year, performing at a 26-homer, 32-steal pace. It makes him the 34th-best outfielder in Head-to-Head points leagues and the 19th-best in Rotisserie.
And now he's going to a much better lineup and a much better park.
The change of scenery is itself a danger given how volatile his production has been, and he may get squeezed out on occasion depending how committed the Blue Jays are to playing Kevin Pillar in center field (defense and all) and Edwin Encarnacion at DH (thereby keeping him off first base -- again, defense and all). But while we wait to see how the playing time shakes out, now may be your last chance to add Upton in leagues where he has slipped through the cracks.
And if you're thinking about adding top prospect Hunter Renfroe while you're at it, general manager A.J. Preller did his best to squash that idea Tuesday, saying the Padres will probably wait until September to call up the 24-year-old. Of course, that doesn't mean he's a bad stash, particularly in five-outfielder leagues. Renfroe is batting .331 with 25 homers and a .963 OPS at Triple-A El Paso.
1. Pineda's progress
Michael Pineda has been the most confounding pitcher in baseball this year. As if his 5.00 ERA through 20 starts isn't bad enough, he has a 5.26 mark in 30 starts dating back to last year, which might normally suggest a pitcher is a lost cause.
But among AL pitchers, Pineda trails only Chris Archer in strikeout per nine innings. He's 15th in all the majors in strikeout-to-walk ratio, ranking among names like Corey Kluber, Chris Sale and Stephen Strasburg. He's a dominant pitcher who, for whatever reason, has gotten dominated.
But maybe his luck is beginning to turn.
The 27-year-old has allowed a total of one earned run over his last two starts, it coming on a solo home run in his most recent gem Monday at the Astros, and not surprisingly, he has 16 strikeouts to four walks during that stretch. And really, he has looked better for a solid two months now:
Maybe you'd argue luck has nothing to do with it, that Pineda's problem is a surplus of home runs created in part by an unfriendly venue. But isn't that high of a rate (1.5 per nine innings) excessive for any pitcher, much less one who allows as little contact as Pineda's does? His fly-ball rate isn't even among the league leaders.
Plus, less than half of the home runs he has allowed were solo shots. The normal rate is two-thirds, which helps explain the difference between Pineda's FIP (3.86) and his ERA (5.00).
And maybe a 3.86 ERA is the extent of Pineda's upside, as his current ratios would suggest, but if you can bring yourself to imagine a slightly reduced home run rate, he might sustain closer to a 3.30 mark he has had over his last 10 starts. And in a year when the league-average ERA is 4.19, that's plenty good enough for a pitcher with Pineda's strikeout ability.
2. No trouble with the curve
James Paxton has been a different pitcher this year. The most visible change is that he occasionally throws 100 mph, but judging by his overall stat line, he's all the worse for it:
Of course, the struggles aren't about what he gained but what he lost. Coming up through the minors, Paxton was renowned for his curveball, so isn't it strange that he all but abandoned it for a six-start stretch beginning June 11, throwing it a grand total of 11 times, according to BrooksBaseball.net? Not so in his most recent start Friday at the Blue Jays. He threw it 18 times, with this being the result:
He had nine strikeouts in all, a couple coming directly on the curveball and several others no doubt set up by it. It's reason to wonder why he pocketed it in the first place.
"I was creeping down a little bit, getting too sidearm, getting too much on the side of the ball, [which] wasn't allowing me to get on top of the curveball," he told MLB.com. "Bringing my arm up a little more has allowed me to get on top of that curveball."
Just a week ago, I identified Paxton as one of the 12 starting pitchers with the most room to improve, thinking all he really needed to do was rediscover his curveball, and at least Saturday, that theory became a reality. As desperate as we all are for starting pitchers, this one shouldn't be only 54 percent owned.
3. Hamilton, the hitter
Billy Hamilton has 13 stolen bases in his last 15 games, and his Rotisserie owners are no doubt pleased with that development. Stolen bases are a rare commodity, after all, with only 16 players having even contributed 15 so far.
But stolen bases are pretty valuable in points leagues as well -- certainly in the standard CBSSports.com format, which awards two points for each -- and the way Hamilton has gone over the last two weeks, he's looking like he could factor even in them. During this 15-game stretch, he has batted .302, which is hardly a coincidence. You can steal second if you don't get to first.
It seems too good to be true given that he's a career .245 hitter, including .253 this year, but with his speed, he's a threat to get on base any time he puts the ball in play. His .365 BABIP during this hot stretch isn't something he can sustain, but he has cut way down on his fly-ball rate this year, which can only help a player with his profile. Really, his speed should give him a higher-than-average BABIP just by virtue of infield singles, so to see him hit .275 or better the rest of the way wouldn't be a complete shock.
Of course, I'd bet against it based on track record, but with as much trouble as I've had filling my third outfielder spot in one particular Head-to-Head points league, having tried my luck with every Danny Valencia, Kendrys Morales and Rajai Davis to come along, I'll gamble on a player who appears to have top-20 potential in that format.
4. An eye for Manaea
After James Paxton, the most under-owned pitcher in Fantasy Baseball right now may be Sean Manaea, which is surprising given that he arrived to the fanfare befitting a top prospect in late April. He underwhelmed for so long, though, that his recent upturn seems to have gone unnoticed.
Friday's start against the Rays was an eye-opener for me:
True, he didn't deliver an eye-popping strikeout total, which his minor-league numbers suggest he should be able to do, but sometimes you have to walk before you can run. The biggest challenge for Manaea, like so many young left-handers, is keeping his walks in line. He certainly did in this start, issuing none over his eight innings of work, and in fact has in three consecutive appearances (one being 5 2/3 innings of relief, so technically not a start). Here are his numbers during that stretch:
It's a marked improvement for a pitcher who issued 3.0 walks per nine innings over his first 11 starts and reason to think Manaea may be on the verge of something greater once he figures out how to make better use of his slider.
So all the tools are there, and he's no longer beating himself. I'll roll the dice on that.
5. Schimpf playing big
Ryan Schmipf has moved beyond being just a cute little story.
Not only has the 28-year-old minor-league journeyman locked down the everyday second base job for the Padres, but he also hit four home runs in his last seven games to give him nine in 92 at-bats overall -- and that's coming off four straight 20-homer seasons in the minors. These aren't a bunch of wall-scrapers either.
It's clear by now that the little guy generates plenty of power, so we should probably be taking him seriously as a Fantasy commodity. The question is what does that look like? Second base isn't exactly a position a need. His own teammate, Yangervis Solarte, boasts an .870 OPS and qualifies at two additional positions, yet he's only 69 percent owned. Meanwhile, higher-profile sleepers like Devon Travis, Jurickson Profar and Steve Pearce are all less than 60 percent owned.
And then there's the fact that Schimpf hasn't contributed much aside from the home runs. He walks a fair amount, which has helped make him the second-best second baseman in Head-to-Head points leagues (behind only Solarte, actually) since the start of July, but let's not delude ourselves into thinking he's going to sustain the 45-homer pace he's currently on. And as much as he strikes out, he's not moving that batting average much beyond the .240 mark either.
Schimpf's influence, then, is probably limited to deeper Rotisserie leagues, with their larger lineups, and of course NL-only formats. It's not outside the realm of possibility he develops into a Brian Dozier-type player, but it's not something you want to pursue since doing so would probably mean dropping someone like Solarte or Profar.
Now, if you're still holding tight to a has-been like Josh Harrison or Starlin Castro, that's a different story ...
