Fantasy Fare: Good/bad of Upton's value with Jays
Article content
We’ve now had five days of Melvin Upton Jr., as a Blue Jay to see where the newly acquired outfielder fits into his new team’s plans. Still too small a sample size but, for his fantasy owners, it doesn’t look promising. Upton, one of fantasy baseball’s most pleasant surprises this season, arrived early this past week with 16 HRs, 20 steals and a .256 AVG, stats built on everyday-starter status, something he won’t maintain in Toronto. We suspect that any advantage he might gain moving his home games from Petco Park to the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre will likely be counter-acted by a decrease in starts and ABs. Initial plans call for Upton to periodically start in RF with Jose Bautista going to DH — against lefties and, perhaps as we saw Saturday, on day games following night games. Upton will also, of course, start when Kevin Pillar or Michael Saunders need a day off. And while his HR rate may stay constant, his steals will depend where Upton hits in the lineup. Sixth, seventh (where he hit Saturday) or eighth, and he could still swipe few. But if he winds up ninth, leadoff or anywhere near the heart of the order, as Ben Revere owners found out last season, there won’t be many green lights with the big boppers coming up behind him. The playing time losers in all of this will be 1B Justin Smoak and OF Ezequiel Carrera. Smoak got a lot of starts because of his defence and his occasional power. But Edwin Encarnacion has shown he is no liability at 1B and the dropoff with the glove from Smoak is not as pronounced as some originally thought it would be.
― On the Padres side, Upton’s exit creates a natural opening for young lefty Alex Dickerson, who showed he was up to the challenge by swatting monster home runs in each of the first two games after Upton moved is belongings down the hall at the Rogers Centre on Monday, and going deep in four consecutive games before injuring himself Friday night in an outfield collision with teammate Travis Jankowski. Dickerson was not on anyone’s top-prospect radar, but has been an eye-opener since his late-June recall, and is batting .286 with six homers, 17 RBIs and two steals in just 84 ABs. The Padres have CF Jon Jay still on the DL, Jankowski filling in for him efficiently, plus top prospects Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot ready for promotion at triple-A. But right now Dickerson, with his power potential and excellent 11.2 strikeout rate, is staking a long-term claim to an everyday role. He, Renfroe and Margot could be the Padres starting OF for years to come.
― Like Upton, another player who loses his new-found fantasy value is infielder Eduardo Nunez who was traded by the Twins to the Giants on Thursday. Nunez, who was enjoying a career year as Minny’s starting SS after spending most of his first five-plus seasons as a bench guy, looks like he’ll eventually lose his everyday at-bats once Matt Duffy returns from the DL. Nunez, 29, will hold down 3B until that happens, then take on an enhanced utility role, starting three or four games a week at a variety of positions. Also, AT&T Park is going to suppress his power numbers as one of the hardest facilities in the majors to hit the ball out of.
― Lucas Harrell, acquired from the Braves, will be part of the Rangers’ rotation, making his first start Sunday. The 31-year-old righty spent two seasons in the Astros rotation, posting a decent 3.76 ERA in 22 starts in 2012. But that number ballooned to 5.86 the following year and is now in his fifth organization in as many years. In Arlington, he could wind up hurting your pitching stats more than he helps.
― Hector Rondon owners have every right to be upset. The Cubs closer lost his job to Aroldis Chapman, but such is the nature of the position. The only silver lining is that Chapman, a free agent after this season, could be gone and Rondon, who is having a dominant year himself, would get his job back in 2017. Andrew Miller, meanwhile reclaims the Yankees closer’s job he held for a couple of months while Chapman was serving his suspension. This amidst talk he, too, could be traded, which would put Dellin Betances in the ninth-inning role.
― And finally, the Andrew Cashner deal to Miami could wind up being much ado about nothing. Cashner, with a 4.76 ERA this season, was a fantasy mainstay a couple of years ago. And his final three starts with the Padres (23 Ks in 17.2 IPs) suggest he might regain some value on a superior team if he can keep it up. But judging by his current 27% Yahoo! mixed league ownership tally, not many believe he will.
WAIVER WATCH (With fantasy rating out of 5)
Joey Gallo OF-3B-1B, Rangers * *
He’s been up before, displayed his prodigious power and is now being tabbed as Texas’ starting 1B next season. But as long as he keeps striking out at this rate (6 Ks in 11 ABs since his latest callup), the consistent ABs won’t be there for him or his growingly impatient fantasy owners.
Alex Bregman SS, Astros * *
With Carlos Correa locking down SS, No. 2 overall pick in 2015 has been shifted to the hot corner. Unlike Gallo, he has an elite eye and won’t strike out as often but he’ll have a narrow window of opportunity with recently signed Cuban star Yulieski Gurriel regaining his stroke in the minors. Starting out 0-for-13 won’t help.
David Dahl OF, Rockies * * *
He doesn’t have Gallo’s power or Bregman’s eye, but he has enough of each plus steals potential, and unlike the other two, is actually producing, going 7-for-19 with a HR, all on the road. That’s notable, because playing his home games at Coors Field will count for something.
Junior Guerra SP, Brewers * * *
Converted infielder didn’t get his first crack at a major-league mound until he was 30 (last year with the Chisox) but has been a revelation of late in Milwaukee, allowing only six ERs in his past six starts. Is he this year’s Rich Hill?
HOT AND NOT (Batters the past two weeks)
Joey Votto CIN .513, 4 HRs, 15 runs
Jay Bruce CIN .261, 7 HRs, 16 RBIs
Ryan Schimpf SD .286, 5 HRs, 11 RBIs, 11 R
Billy Hamilton CIN .308, 9 runs, 12 SBs
Albert Pujols LAA .340, 4 HRs, 18 RBIs
- - - - - -
Bryce Harper WAS .114, 3 runs, 1 HR
Chris Davis BAL .132, 0 HRs, 1 RBI
Eric Hosmer KC .184, 1 HR, 7 RBIs
LINE OF THE WEEK
Daniel Bard, RP
IP ER H BB HBP
1.0 20 0 18 10
OK, we’re departing from the norm here, simply because the numbers are so unbelievable. But according to @baseball_ref, the one-time Red Sox closer-to-be allegedly has compiled that head-shaking line over his past seven appearances which, it says, spans a couple of years in the low minors plus winter ball. So, how can anyone allow 20 ERs without giving up a hit? Load the bases with walks and hit batsmen, then watch the runs score after being replaced. Several times.
INJURY UPDATES
Rich Hill’s ongoing blister problems will keep him from making his trade showcase start on Sunday … Zack Greinke is expected to make one rehab start midweek before rejoining the D-Backs … Alex Dickerson was able to walk off the field after his scary outfield collision with a teammate on Friday, but no word on how long he’ll be out … Blake Swihart still feels some soreness in his ankle … Hamstring injuries have forced Luis Valbuena and Brett Lawrie on to the DL … Clayton Kershaw (back) remains about a month away … Ryan Braun (ribs) is day-to-day … Jose Reyes strained a rib muscle while swinging … Taijuan Walker could rejoin the M’s rotation next weekend … Matt Duffy (foot) starts minor-league rehab stint this weekend … May be back this week: Jhonny Peralta, Craig Kimbrel, Hector Olivera (suspension), Carlos Rodon, J.D. Martinez, Justin Bour, Trevor Plouffe, Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss.
