MLB teams
Eddie Matz, ESPN Senior Writer 8y

The 35 days of September: Race to the AL East title

MLB

Thirty days has September, April, June and November -- except for when September has 35 days, like this year.

That's right, for a limited time only, the baseball gods have extended September to give us 17 percent MORE (MORE, MORe, MOre, More, more ...) pennant race baseball in the American League East. Or should I say, the AL Beast. Because starting on Aug. 29 and ending on Oct. 2, super-September is going to be a bear for the Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles (and the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, for that matter), as the three contenders in MLB's most contentious pennant race will take turns bludgeoning each other repeatedly during the final megamonth of the season.

Over the next five weeks, Toronto plays a dozen games against Boston and Baltimore (six each), and Boston plays Baltimore seven times in what should be a supremely entertaining stretch run that will ultimately determine the division champion -- and possibly a wild card or two.

Here's a preview of the pennant pugilism that awaits:

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Current standing: 74-56, first place

Head-to-head history: 7-6 vs. Boston, 7-6 vs. Baltimore

Why they'll flourish: A year after becoming the first team ever to score 12 million runs in a season (give or take), the Blue Jays' offense is still pretty darned good (4.9 runs per game, second in the American League). But it's their surprising starters that have been the difference-maker this season. Led by Cy Young contender J.A. Happ, Toronto's starting five six boasts a 3.76 ERA, the best in the American League by a bunch. In fact, no other rotation has an ERA below four.

Why they'll flounder: The Jays and Red Sox are practically twins. Both feature stacked offenses and solid rotations. Both have bullpen issues. Both have square-jawed 54-year-old skippers named John. So it could come down to the little things -- such as schedules. Aside from 13 games against the Yanks and Rays (Boston and Baltimore have that too), Toronto gets a seven-game West Coast swing featuring the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels, two teams that they're a combined 2-4 against this season. The Red Sox head West too but get the gift that is the Oakland Athletics and San Diego Padres, while the O's host the Arizona Diamondbacks and visit the Detroit Tigers. Disadvantage, Blue Jays.

X factor: Jose Bautista has been banged up. Michael Saunders has cooled off. And since being acquired in a deadline deal, the artist formerly known as B.J. Upton has been, well, the artist formerly known as B.J. Upton. In other words, the outfield situation is less solid than dried ice. If Joey Bats can stay healthy and get back to doing Joey Bats things, it'll go a long way toward helping the Jays become the first AL East team to make back-to-back postseasons since the Yankees in 2011 and 2012.

Stat that matters: .914. That's the current OPS of Edwin Encarnacion, who's on pace to finish above .900 again. If he does, he'll join Mike Trout as the only AL players to do so (assuming Trout doesn't go in the tank) in each of the past five seasons.

BOSTON RED SOX

Current standing: 72-58, second place (two games behind); in possession of first AL wild card

Head-to-head history: 6-7 vs. Toronto, 6-6 vs. Baltimore

Why they'll flourish: Lumber, lumber and more lumber. As ridiculous as the 2015 Toronto offense was, Boston's 2016 lineup is even more loaded. Their .815 OPS is more than 40 points higher than the next closest American League team (Baltimore). They have four guys among the AL's top 10 in hitting (Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Xander Bogaerts). And apparently it's contagious: Sandy Leon, a backup catcher with a .187 career average entering this season, is slashing .349/.406/.580. No, really.

Why they'll flounder: With an offense like Boston's, getting the lead isn't a problem. Holding it? That's another story. Injuries to Carson Smith, Koji Uehara and Craig Kimbrel have crippled the Red Sox's pen, which ranks 11th in the AL in ERA (3.94) and 13th in walk rate (9.5 percent). Kimbrel is back and filthy as ever, but minus Uehara, the setup situation is shakier than the camerawork in a Paul Greengrass movie. So shaky, in fact, that Boston was considering bringing back old friend Jonathan Papelbon. Yikes. Instead, it looks like they might try Clay Buchholz. Double yikes.

X factor: Uehara, who strained a pectoral muscle on July 19, threw a 53-pitch bullpen session on Sunday. That would seem to suggest that a September return isn't out of the question. A fully convalesced Koji could cure the pen's pain ... or not. Prior to going on the shelf, Uehara served up a whiplash-inducing eight gopher balls in 36 innings.

Stat that matters: 0.75. That's David Price's WHIP over his past three starts. During those three outings, Price is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA and hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of them, marking the first time this season that Boston's ace has gone three straight starts allowing two earned runs or fewer. Translation: Price is peaking when it counts.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Current standing: 71-59, third place (three games behind); two games up for second AL wild card

Head-to-head history: 6-7 vs. Toronto, 6-6 vs. Boston

Why they'll flourish: Law of averages says they're due. The all-or-nothing O's offense set an MLB record for most home runs in June, when they went yard 56 times, and led the majors in batting (.300) and scoring (6.6 runs/game). Since then, the Birds' bats have been quieter than a mime in outer space, producing just 4.1 runs a game after the beginning of July (12th in the AL). To make it back to the postseason for the third time in three years, Baltimore's offense must bust out again down the stretch.

Why they'll flounder: The starting rotation was already, um, challenged. And that was before ace Chris Tillman hit the disabled list with shoulder issues. Things have gotten so bad that Ubaldo Jimenez -- who was banished to the bullpen after being the worst starter in baseball before the break -- is now being asked to pitch massively meaningful games. That includes a Tuesday tilt with Toronto, against which he has a 14.09 ERA this season. It doesn't get more desperate than that.

X factor: Historically indestructible center fielder Adam Jones, who turned 31 earlier this month, has been banged up this season (oblique, back) and is having hamstring issues at the exact wrong time. A key contributor on both sides of the ball -- not to mention a five-time All-Star -- Jones is essential to have in the lineup for the O's to stand a chance at overcoming their wreck of a rotation.

Stat that matters: 5.07. After posting a 3.12 ERA during the first half (second in the AL), Baltimore's bullpen -- which was crucial in carrying the club earlier this season -- is running on fumes. Since the All-Star break, O's relievers have a 5.07 ERA that ranks 29th in the majors.

Prediction: Toronto wins the division, Boston gets a wild card and Baltimore gets to take the month of October off -- or at least the last 29 days of it.

Scott Lauber contributed reporting to this story. 

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