Between the Blue Jays’ September swoon and Boston’s September surge, it seems increasingly likely that the Blue Jays will need to scrap their way into the postseason.
That’s obviously a disappointment to most fans, especially given that the team seemed well positioned for a second consecutive AL East title only a few weeks ago. And nobody really wants to see a Wild Card participant banner raised in centre field.
Still, after a passable 4-3 west coast road trip, the Blue Jays remain at the front of a mix of teams vying to continue to play baseball after game 162.
There are unquestionably clear advantages to winning the division and saving your team (and fans) the agony of single-game elimination scenarios. Most notably, this means having extra time to re-set your rotation for the division series.
Given the Blue Jays’ current place in the standings, and within the context of the number of teams in the same mix, it is certainly plausible that they will need to use their best pitchers in the final weekend of the regular season to ensure that they continue to play.
And should chaos ensue, they may even need to fight their way through tie-breaker games just to make it to a Wild Card showdown. To say the least, this is sub-optimal.
Conventional wisdom suggests this puts a team with the Wild Card berth at an instant disadvantage for the frantic best-of-five LDS. Your best pitcher has been spent simply to get past that one-game playoff, meaning they may not be ready to return before the third game, and are likely to get only a single start in the series.
In the more chaotic scenario of a tie-breaker, this could mean that you are relying on your number three starter by the time you are opening a series, facing a division winner. And for those who root for “Team Entropy” (the term Sports Illustrated writer Jay Jaffe coined for cheering for the most muddied, tie-laden end to a season), you could imagine a scenario where a team burns through three or more starters before even making it to an actual series.
But if there is a silver lining to all this angst and stress, it lies within a question that has been tossed around by fans and media over the past few weeks: If the Blue Jays end up in a must-win game, who do you start?
The fact that this is a question, or isn’t completely evident might strike some as an additional worry, and a sign that the Blue Jays lack a “true ace” who stands out as the clear answer. However, that hasn’t been the focus of discussion when this comes up, as most have mentioned three legitimate candidates for this role: Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, and Marco Estrada.
If this were a column weighing the relative merits of these arms, there’s ample evidence that Sanchez is the standout of the three and the most likely choice. He currently sits fourth in the American League with a 3.12 ERA and eighth amongst AL pitchers with 3.6 wins above replacement. He also sits fourth in Win Probability Added at 2.49.
But even if Sanchez might be a first choice, there’s also level of comfort as we approach a fitful finish that either Happ or Estrada would also be appealing options should the Blue Jays need them. Happ is ninth in the AL in ERA (3.28), and eighth in WPA (1.91), while Estrada is 15th in ERA (3.62) and 11th in WPA (1.43).
Scanning between Sanchez and Estrada at the top of those leaderboards, you see other game one starters for playoff-bound teams such as Cole Hamels, Corey Kluber and Rick Porcello. But you’ll be hard-pressed as you look downwards on the page to locate the second or third options for other Wild Card competitors such as the Orioles, Tigers, or Astros.
Frankly, few teams have a fourth-best option as good as Marcus Stroman, whose performance in the second half has been better. His ERA since the All-Star break (3.89) is a full run lower than it was in the first half.
The Blue Jays may well need to win games in the final series of the season against the Red Sox. Some hope remains that those games matter for the division crown, but with their current placement and those aforementioned teams still in the mix, they may still be playing to stave off elimination from the postseason at that point.
One would have to assume that in a series of consecutive must-win games, it will be all hands on deck on the pitching staff.
Given their current placement in the standings, the fact that the Blue Jays have multiple options in choosing a starter for a must-win is an important advantage, and a luxury few of their competitors possess at the moment.
