Friday, June 06, 2014
Odds that one of Cueto, Wainwright, Felix, Tanaka, Buehrle will win Cy Young in 2014?
That's my question. Is it at 50/50? More? Less?
We're about sixty games in so far. If an aspiring saberist wants to tackle this, go to Pinto's site, take the top 2 Cy contenders in each league for the last five years (2009-13), which is 10 Cy Youngs, plus the best 5th guy? (either after around 60 games, or through games of June 5 of that year), and tell us how many Cy Youngs were in that group. Was it 5? 3? 8? What exactly?
Checked real quick…. looks like the odds are 30% that one of those 5 will win the Cy Young. However….
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Nine of the 10 winners were also within 12 Cy Young points of the leader.
That’s 7 NL pitchers that fit the bill there:
Cueto, Wainwright, Teheran, Hudson, Bumgarner, Greinke, Lohse
I’d give Cueto and Wainwright 20% each, and 10% for each of the other 5.
In the AL:
Tanaka, Felix, Buehrle, Darvish, Gray, Kazmir
So, I’ll give 20% for each of the top 3, and 10% for each of the other three.
Therefore, I’m going with a 50/50 shot that one of the five guys I listed will win a Cy Young.
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10% chance of a long-shot winner from among this group: Wacha, Strasburg, Ross in the NL, and Kluber, Keuchel, Lester, Scherzer in the AL.