Jerry Crasnick, ESPN Senior Writer 9y

Blue Jays hope shift to Rogers Centre can ignite offense

MLB, Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals

TORONTO -- After two straight dispiriting losses in Kansas City to begin the American League Championship Series, the Toronto Blue Jays take great comfort in returning to their rain-proof, climate-controlled, ear-splitting nirvana on the shore of Lake Ontario.

If the Jays punch some balls the other way, advance from first to third on base hits and even sprinkle in a sacrifice bunt or two in Games 3, 4 and 5 of the ALCS, it won't come as a shock. But small ball is usually the undercard to the main event at Rogers Centre. Toronto's ability to recover from a 2-0 deficit and make the series interesting will hinge in part on the Jays' ability to play big boy baseball, in increments of 400-450 feet.

"We hit home runs,'' Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said after a team workout Sunday afternoon. "We're built for our park. We're built for the division we play in. Really, that's our trademark. If we're going to win, we need to score.''

The Blue Jays were a long-ball fueled bunch on their way to 93 victories and the franchise's first postseason berth in 22 years. They led the majors with 891 runs and 232 homers, and scored 48.1 percent of their regular-season runs on homers -- the sixth highest ratio in the majors.

The Rogers Centre obviously helps matters. The Blue Jays posted a .485 slugging percentage at home this season, second only to the Coors Field-inspired Colorado Rockies (.489) among major league teams.

"They swing for the fences all the time,'' Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain said. "That's just what they do. Those guys hit home runs. They slug.''

The Jays seemed out of their element and bereft of their swagger during the first two games of the series in Kansas City. Toronto failed to do anything against Edinson Volquez and the Kansas City bullpen in a 5-0 loss in the series opener, and scratched out only three runs against Yordano Ventura before a Ryan Goins-Jose Bautista outfield miscommunication set the stage for a big seventh-inning comeback against David Price in the Royals' 6-3 victory over the Jays on Saturday.

Although it's hard to quantify precisely what impact Kauffman Stadium had on Toronto's offensive mindset or its results in Games 1 and 2, the ballpark the Kansas City players lovingly refer to as "The K'' is clearly not compatible with the Jays' overall approach. As the 25th most favorable home run park in the majors in 2015, Kauffman Stadium neutralizes the quick-strike ability that can make the Blue Jays' offense so demoralizing for opposing staffs.

Rogers Centre, in contrast, gives an advantage to Toronto's hitters that's manifested in several home run-related nuggets compiled by the folks at ESPN Stats & Information. Consider:

• Toronto's three main middle-of-the-order sluggers, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Bautista, combined for 33 home runs this season that traveled at least 425 feet. In contrast, the entire Kansas City team produced only 32 homers of that distance during the 2015 season.

• The home-road breakdown for the Blue Jays was stark. Of the 33 homers of 425 feet or longer launched by Toronto's Big Three, 22 came at Rogers Centre.

• When the ESPN stat mavens broke down the 120 total homers produced by Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion in 2015, they found that a substantial 13 (or 10.8 percent) would not have been out had they been hit at Kauffman Stadium.

Do home run hitters try a little too hard to muscle up at a big park, and suffer as a consequence? It's hard to make assumptions or draw too many conclusions from such a small sample size. Chris Young, who will start Game 4 for the Royals on Tuesday, is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who does not appear well-suited for Rogers Centre. But his start Tuesday will mark his first appearance at the place, so he's a virtual blank slate on the topic. Until Young takes the mound, he'll tune out the Princeton grad within and try not to get too analytical about things.

"We'll see,'' Young said. "It's hard to predict these things. You just go in there as a team and play your style of game and see what happens.''

Indeed, Bautista says he thinks other residual elements beyond the batter's eye, the outfield dimensions, the closed roof or the familiar turf at Rogers Centre could help the Blue Jays regain their equilibrium this week. Regardless of how it transpired, Toronto's 53-28 regular-season home record tied for third best in the majors this season.

"You're always a little bit more comfortable at home because it allows you to maintain your regular routine easier,'' Bautista said. "You play 81 games there, and you live in your place. You don't have to go to a hotel. You don't have to take a bus. The routine is much easier. And obviously, with the home crowd behind you, it's not such a hostile environment. So those things help.''

The Blue Jays return home with little margin for error against a Kansas City team that's looking downright inspired these days. Simple math says the Jays have to win four of their next five games to advance to the World Series. They're going to need all the help they can get.

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