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FiveThirtyEight

fivethirtyeight.com


Authors (3)

Neil Paine (6), Rob Arthur (4), Carl Bialik (1)


1 to 10 of 11


Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about baseball (and other less interesting subjects).

635FiveThirtyEight

In Baseball, October Is Reliever Season

By Rob Arthur

PUBLISHED: Oct 18, 2016, 9:44 am EDT

It was Game One of the American League Championship Series, and Cleveland Indians ace Corey Kluber was cruising against the Toronto Blue Jays. He’d allowed no runs while striking out six through six and a third innings, and — having thrown only 100 pitches — he seemed ready to keep shutting down the Jays’ bats. […]

ADDED: Oct 18, 2016, 11:02 am via fivethirtyeight.com

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635FiveThirtyEight

Rangers And Jays Battle To The Postseason's Most Exciting Game -- So Far

By Rob Arthur

PUBLISHED: Oct 10, 2016, 1:16 pm EDT

While much of America was focused on the second presidential debate, the Blue Jays and Rangers were battling through a back-and-forth ballgame that...

ADDED: Oct 10, 2016, 2:16 pm via fivethirtyeight.com

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635FiveThirtyEight

Who Needs The MVP? Mike Trout Might Be The G.O.A.T.

By Neil Paine

PUBLISHED: Nov 19, 2015, 6:49 pm EST

The MVP snubs keep piling up for Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels. On Thursday, Josh Donaldson of the Toronto Blue Jays bested Trout for Most Valuable honors in the American League. It’s the third time that he’s lost in a year when he led the league in wins above replacement (WAR). (The guy’s […]

ADDED: Nov 19, 2015, 7:15 pm via fivethirtyeight.com

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635FiveThirtyEight

There’s A 60 Percent Chance Of A Royals-Mets World Series

By Neil Paine

PUBLISHED: Oct 19, 2015, 1:21 pm EDT

Going into the league championship round of the MLB playoffs, the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs were looking like the best bets to meet in the World Series next week. According to our Elo ratings, they were the two strongest squads in baseball, and while neither team had home-field advantage in its LCS matchup, […]

ADDED: Oct 19, 2015, 3:15 pm via fivethirtyeight.com

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635FiveThirtyEight

Boy, Those Toronto Blue Jays World Series Odds Went South Quick

By Neil Paine

PUBLISHED: Oct 9, 2015, 6:57 pm EDT

Before any MLB playoff games were played, things were looking so good for Canada’s World Series hopes. (The country’s title drought in hockey gets all the attention, but no baseball champ has hailed from north of the border since 1993, either.) With odds of 19 percent, the Toronto Blue Jays had the best chance of […]

ADDED: Oct 9, 2015, 7:15 pm via fivethirtyeight.com

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635FiveThirtyEight

The Blue Jays Are The Best — And There’s An 80 Percent Chance They Won’t Win

By Rob Arthur

PUBLISHED: Oct 6, 2015, 12:54 pm EDT

It’s time for real, live playoff baseball. Or as sabermetricians like to call it: the season where weird stuff happens. The playoffs are entirely different from the regular season, with an emphasis on top-tier starting pitching and the savvy usage of strong late-inning relief. Sabermetrics researchers have struggled in vain for years to pinpoint a […]

ADDED: Oct 6, 2015, 1:15 pm via fivethirtyeight.com

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635FiveThirtyEight

Stats Can’t Tell Us Whether Mike Trout Or Josh Donaldson Should Be MVP

By Rob Arthur

PUBLISHED: Sep 21, 2015, 5:53 pm EDT

As MLB award season arrives, no prize looms larger than Most Valuable Player. From a statistical perspective, the best guide to the MVP award is undoubtedly wins above replacement, and some voters develop their MVP ballots at least in part based on WAR. If you were going just by WAR, the American League MVP should […]

ADDED: Sep 21, 2015, 7:15 pm via fivethirtyeight.com

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635FiveThirtyEight

Game Theory Says R.A. Dickey Should Throw More Knuckleballs

By Neil Paine

PUBLISHED: Aug 13, 2015, 3:51 pm EDT

Of all the strategic elements of baseball, few are more fascinating than the poker game between pitcher and hitter. Each participant knows his strengths and those of his adversary, and that knowledge informs both players’ tactics in a complex entanglement of actions and counteractions. If the best pitch in a hurler’s repertoire is his fastball, […]

ADDED: Aug 23, 2015, 1:56 pm via fivethirtyeight.com

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635FiveThirtyEight

Blue Jays’ Breakout Is No Surprise, But Don’t Forget The W’s And L’s

By Neil Paine

PUBLISHED: Aug 10, 2015, 4:48 pm EDT

As if to put an exclamation point on their recent winning ways, the Toronto Blue Jays went into the Bronx over the weekend and swept the AL East-leading New York Yankees by a combined score of 10-1, narrowing New York’s division lead to a mere game and a half. The Blue Jays’ hot streak has […]

ADDED: Aug 23, 2015, 2:04 pm via fivethirtyeight.com

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635FiveThirtyEight

Did Your Team Blow It At The Trade Deadline?

By Neil Paine

PUBLISHED: Aug 4, 2015, 3:49 pm EDT

The Blue Jays bought, the Tigers sold and the Mets couldn’t make up their mind. Baseball’s trade deadline, which passed last Friday afternoon, is all about balancing the present against the future. Whether they’re buyers or sellers (or just renters), all deadline-dealers have to evaluate both their World Series chances for the current season and […]

ADDED: Aug 23, 2015, 2:04 pm via fivethirtyeight.com

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